U.S. Auto Market Defies Early Forecasts
At the start of 2025, most economic projections cast a cautious outlook for the U.S. auto industry. Outlets such as The Economist warned of softening demand, higher rates, and policy headwinds, with some models suggesting a 13M SAAR baseline.
At the NADA Auto Forum in April, Force Marketing CEO John Fitzpatrick and U.S. Senator Bernie Moreno offered a different perspective. Based on dealer-level data and observed retail momentum, they projected a 16M SAAR — a call that proved accurate through late summer.
By September, SAAR reached 16.4M, with August peaking at 16.5. EV incentives, tariff adjustments, and improved retail execution all contributed to the lift, even with fewer selling days.
Market Update: November 2025
Industry estimates now place SAAR near 15.3M as post-incentive demand levels out heading into the final quarter. Despite the expected normalization, total sales remain well above early-year forecasts, supported by resilient consumers and adaptive retailers.
Data, Experience, and Market Visibility
he accuracy of Fitzpatrick and Moreno’s projection underscores the value of pairing data with firsthand retail insight. Broader models often overlook near-term behavioral shifts that dealer data captures early, including:
Inventory strategy: how stocking levels and turn rates adapt to local demand.
Pricing adjustments: rapid dealer response to interest-rate pressure and incentive windows.
Consumer intent: early signs of purchase deferral, trade-in trends, and EV interest.
Operational agility: how sales and service teams adjust to maintain throughput despite market headwinds.
Moreno, drawing from his background as a dealer, emphasized the resilience of the retail network and the continued strength of buyer demand. Fitzpatrick validated those observations with AudienceIQ data showing steady engagement and conversion across Force Marketing’s dealership partners.
Outlook for Q4 and 2026
As the market steadies into year-end, the opportunity moves from prediction to timing. Dealers who read early signals — not just reports — will stay ahead of each turn in the cycle.
Through AudienceIQ and our Family of Brands (WeDrive and GSM), Force Marketing helps dealers identify these shifts in real time and convert market movement into measurable growth.
Watch the original conversation here:
U.S. Auto Market Defies Early Forecasts
At the start of 2025, most economic projections cast a cautious outlook for the U.S. auto industry. Outlets such as The Economist warned of softening demand, higher rates, and policy headwinds, with some models suggesting a 13M SAAR baseline.
At the NADA Auto Forum in April, Force Marketing CEO John Fitzpatrick and U.S. Senator Bernie Moreno offered a different perspective. Based on dealer-level data and observed retail momentum, they projected a 16M SAAR — a call that proved accurate through late summer.
By September, SAAR reached 16.4M, with August peaking at 16.5. EV incentives, tariff adjustments, and improved retail execution all contributed to the lift, even with fewer selling days.
Market Update: November 2025
Industry estimates now place SAAR near 15.3M as post-incentive demand levels out heading into the final quarter. Despite the expected normalization, total sales remain well above early-year forecasts, supported by resilient consumers and adaptive retailers.
Data, Experience, and Market Visibility
The accuracy of Fitzpatrick and Moreno’s projection underscores the value of pairing data with firsthand retail insight. Broader models often overlook near-term behavioral shifts that dealer data captures early, including:
Inventory strategy: how stocking levels and turn rates adapt to local demand.
Pricing adjustments: rapid dealer response to interest-rate pressure and incentive windows.
Consumer intent: early signs of purchase deferral, trade-in trends, and EV interest.
Operational agility: how sales and service teams adjust to maintain throughput despite market headwinds.
Moreno, drawing from his background as a dealer, emphasized the resilience of the retail network and the continued strength of buyer demand. Fitzpatrick validated those observations with AudienceIQ data showing steady engagement and conversion across Force Marketing’s dealership partners.
Outlook for Q4 and 2026
As the market steadies into year-end, the opportunity moves from prediction to timing. Dealers who read early signals — not just reports — will stay ahead of each turn in the cycle.
Through AudienceIQ and our Family of Brands (WeDrive and GSM), Force Marketing helps dealers identify these shifts in real time and convert market movement into measurable growth.
Watch the original conversation here:
